Publishing is definitely in the throes of change.  Wild Ride came out several weeks ago, made the NY Times list out the gate, but I also have picked up a vibe of change.  A lot of uncertainty.

The iBookstore is making deals with the larger publishers but it’s uncertain what the parameters for the rest of us is going to be.  The iPad is out to mixed reviews, but overall they seem to be positive.  I sense it’s really a beta test for something coming down the line.

And what is coming down the line?  Michael Wolff who runs Newswer, an aggregate web site—and if you don’t know what that is, it is part of the future—had an article in the recent Vanity Fair about the Internet’s next big thing.  In essence, he boils it down to several paths and I’ll try to boil it down for you, the writer.  Even if you are going traditional publishing, it still affects you both in terms of eBooks and in terms of marketing.

There are several possible next big things:

Platform Theory:  This means someone is going to buy up most of the platforms out there and control the internet.  Ie buy Facebook, Google, etc.  Or those companies will buy each other.  Other players are Apple with the iPad and iPhone.  Up to now, no one has really been able to ‘control’ the net because the technology has been changing.  However, the technology of the Internet itself, is now relatively stable.  So it’s coming down to a war between Google’s control  of web-page-based Search and Facebook’s command of social media.  This concept might not evolve because it’s kind of Cold War.  As if someone could take over the internet.  But what if someone did?

Publishers are latching onto this in order to control the flow of books.  It’s why they are negotiating with Amazon and Apple over pricing and distribution.

Digital behavior theory:  the old way of doing business was hierarchical from creator of media to users.  Now, it’s flat on the internet with cheap production and few barriers between creator and user.  Kindle is a good example of that.  Who Dares Wins Publishing now has 14 books up on Kindle.  Our sales are doubling every month and we are moving onto more and more platforms.  We’ve just started getting our first sales in Europe.

The danger of this path is that no one is really controlling quality—other than users—and people are getting manipulated into working for free.  I know writers who contributed to local ezines and got paid—now they are doing it for free.  Because if they don’t get the byline, someone else will.

Some of this goes to what I mentioned in a post last month:  people are actually more creative when working for the art rather than money.  Which is fine and well, but art can’t feed you.  Think of all the energy people put into some of those Youtbube videos?  Yet, they really don’t get paid for them.  I’ve had over 9,000 hits on my Special Forces video on Youtube, but I’m not sure if it’s done anything for me.  This theory also says web pages are already out of date as they are passive.  The Internet is not a product, a production, etc.  It is our collective expressiveness.

The Pay-As-You-Go theory:  Since the hierarchy is now flat, revenue is also almost flat, so some people want to get back to basics.  They want to get ad costs up and also get sponsors for various media.  Can you see an ad for deodorant inside your next book?  Maybe.  Product placement also might be key here.  Will the NY Times start charging since their internet ads are not producing enough revenue?  I’m seeing more and more ads getting layered onto sites such as NY Times and Sports Illustrated and CNN.  I kind of like what Hulu does– you HAVE to watch the 30 second spots, but it’s only 30 seconds and they time it down for you.  I can live with that.  How can we do ads with books?

The magical machine theory:  Aka the iPhone.  Blackberry isn’t doing too hot lately.  The Kindle is still doing well, but everyone keeps talking about it not being backlit and black and white.  On the flip side, complaints about the iPad are smudges on the pad, etc.  Will there be ONE machine that will be our eReader, cell phone, laptop, media center, etc?  If one machine dominates, start thinking about ATTs deal with Apple over the iPhone.  And Kindle vs. MacMillan.  The maker of the machine might control our media.

And you want to know what’s really going to drive all this?  Sex.  It was the only thing that consistently made money on the Internet and people aren’t going to change.  Think Skype Sex.  What about Facebook buying Skype?  What about cats and dogs living together?  Sorry, couldn’t help it.  But the woman who cuts my hair was telling me about talking to her daughter in Costa Rica on Skype the other day– and she said she’s basically computer illiterate, but was able to download the program, plug in a small camera, etc. all pretty easily.

Will any or all of these theories happen?  Who knows.  But as a writer, you need to look at all four and examine the advantages and disadvantages of each.